Market Update
Why Buy Before Winter: The Case for Acting Now
Published October 15, 2026
As the weather turns and the market shifts, I have been getting a lot of questions about timing. Should I wait for spring? Should I hold off and see what happens with rates? Here is my honest take on why this fall and early winter is one of the better windows we have seen in a while for buyers.
I know waiting can feel like the safe move. But safe is not the same as smart, and when the conditions underneath the market line up the way they do right now, there is a real argument for acting before the calendar turns.
Less Competition in Fall and Winter
Spring is the busiest time of year for a reason, everyone comes out at once. More buyers, more competing offers, less room to negotiate. In the fall and winter the crowds thin out. Fewer buyers shopping means less bidding-war pressure, and the sellers who are still on the market this time of year tend to be more motivated.
That is exactly the combination a buyer wants to walk into: more time to think, more patience from the other side, and more room to ask for the things that matter to you. It is a quieter market, and quiet markets tend to be kinder to the people doing the buying.
The Condo Advantage Right Now
For condo and townhome buyers, this is arguably the best window in years. The condo segment has the most supply and the most room to negotiate of any housing type right now, with condo prices down across the GTA and even more in the 905. For every 100 active condo listings, only about 16 sell, which means patient buyers hold real leverage. That leverage is not guaranteed to last as supply tightens down the road.
If you have been eyeing a condo or townhouse, this is the moment where patience can actually pay off, not just in the price, but in the terms of your deal. That kind of flexibility is worth real money, and it is here right now.
The Inventory Story
There are about 22,000 fewer homes listed in the GTA this year than last, with new listings down 14.4 per cent from a year ago. New construction starts are at historic lows, so fewer listings are coming down the line. Buying while there is real choice means you can be selective. Waiting risks competing for fewer homes later.
Choice is the quiet advantage of this moment. When there are plenty of homes to look at, you can take your time, compare properly, and land on the one that genuinely fits. That comfort does not last forever, so it makes sense to use it while it is here.
The Rate Picture
The Bank of Canada has held rates steady at 2.25 per cent all year, and there is more chatter about a possible increase than a drop at the October 28 announcement. Inflation is sitting near the top of the target range. If rates tick up, buying power goes down. Acting now lets you lock in your numbers at today's rates.
Nobody knows what the next announcement will bring, and I would not pretend to. What I do know is that the numbers you can secure today are solid, and a fixed payment you can plan around is a gift in this market.
What It Means for You
For someone looking in Toronto right now, the conditions line up: fewer competing buyers, motivated sellers, and the most negotiation room the condo and townhome market has offered in a while. Buying before winter means settling in before the holidays instead of entering the spring rush with more buyers and fewer homes to choose from.
Picture it: keys in hand before the snow flies, your own space ready for the holidays, and no spring scramble in your future. That is a very real version of how this can go if you move with the market instead of against it.
No one can promise the perfect moment, but the conditions line up right now. If you would like to talk through what these numbers mean for your plans, I would love to help. Reach out anytime and we can book a time to chat.
Want to talk through what these numbers mean for you?
Whether you are buying your first home or simply curious about the market, I would love to walk you through it. No pressure, just straight answers from a REALTOR who knows this market.
This article is general information only and is not financial or legal advice. Market figures referenced are drawn from recent public reporting and are GTA-wide averages, which may not reflect conditions in any specific neighbourhood or property type. Every buyer's situation is different, so please speak with a mortgage professional about your own circumstances before making any decision. Tory Akene is a REALTOR with Real Broker Ontario Ltd., Brokerage.